Most of the post of Desk officers are lying vacant after promotion of 147 (122+25) Desk Officers to Under Secretary in June and July this year. In OSS Cadre sanction strength of DO is 325.
Out of 302 DOs in the gradation list as on 01.01.2019, now only 120-130 are present and 200 posts vacant. Out of 520 SOs in the Gradation list as on 01.01.2018, if aforementioned 200 posts get filled up, then only 320 will be there against 700 sanctioned post.
So after this promotion, we can assume the present position of SO to Addl. secretary will be 988 (SO - 320 + DO - 325+ US-251+DS-70+JS-22).
But here we can only discuss about Section Officer post, as we ASOs are to be promoted to that rank in near future.
After analysing the 520 SOs in the Gradation list as on 01.01.2018, it is found the retirement of nearly 250 SOs by 2024. ( Yearwise breakup as below). Also by that year, rest SOs would have promoted to DO keeping all 700 posts vacant.
Retirement in the year
2018 - 10. 2026 - 27. 2034 - 16
2019 - 20. 2027 - 38. 2035 - 15
2020 - 19. 2028 - 44. --------------
2021 - 39. 2029 - 33. Total - 520
2022 - 43. 2030 - 26
2023 - 51. 2031 - 30
2024 - 44. 2032 - 11
2025 - 33. 2033 - 21
By 2024, our service (batch 2016) will complete 8 years by then. So at a time nearly 800 ASOs (out of 811+139 Recruited) will qualify for promotion to 700 Post of Section Officer.
But some obstacles may arise during our promotion as below.
1. Government may not confirm our promotion based on merit. ( As already to be notified). So who will get first promotion is not certain.
2. As an effect of Integration of HODs, the system of administration may have changed a lot.
3. If concept of 5T continues, then some problems may arise.
4. New Recruitment may not be there upto 2024 as we ASOs of three batches cover 1400 posts from 3 batches.
5. Cadre restructuring may be there within these years with abolition of posts because today's Government has a great hope on ASOs and their talent.
6. Still now the gradation list of ASOs is not final. Because of ambiguity in position of ASOs joined through RA Scheme and Induction as well as in Special Drive, the list is under consideration.
Hence, we can have a hope of promotion only if no such obstacles come in our cadre. And to save our cadre upto 2024, we have to be united through Association otherwise we will be great sufferers whereas our seniors have already got their rights before their retirement. And although it's a bitter truth, ASOs joined this year should forget their promotion for next 10 years.